Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad prediction
La Liga ·
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Athletic Club a 47% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Real Sociedad 26%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.62, Real Sociedad 1.16.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Athletic Club: position 7 with 16 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-4-3), 15 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: D W W L D.
Real Sociedad: position 5 with 19 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-1-4), 20 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: L W W W W.
Absences and team news
Athletic Club are without I. Ruiz de Galarreta, G. Guruzeta, U. Egiluz.
Real Sociedad are without L. Beitia, A. Zakharyan, A. Odriozola.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 48% for Athletic Club, 26% for the draw and 26% for Real Sociedad. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 47%, 27% and 26%.
Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.62, Real Sociedad 1.16, 2.77 in total. Over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 56%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Athletic Club win (47%, fair odds 2.14); double chance 1X rises to 74%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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