Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete prediction
Copa del Rey · · New Municipal Stadium Ciudad de Puertollano, Puertollano
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Calvo Sotelo a 17% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Albacete 60%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Calvo Sotelo 0.97, Albacete 1.99.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Calvo Sotelo report no significant absences.
Albacete report no significant absences.
Team news, Albacete: Etxeberría announces rotations with nine players from the reserve team called up: Albacete will take the field with a different lineup from the league.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 17% for Calvo Sotelo, 22% for the draw and 61% for Albacete. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 17%, 23% and 60%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Calvo Sotelo 0.97, Albacete 1.99, 2.95 in total. Over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 7.8 (over 9.5 at 27%). Expected yellow cards: 4.3 (over 3.5 at 62%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Albacete win (60%, fair odds 1.67); double chance X2 rises to 83%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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