Tarancón vs Levante prediction
Copa del Rey · · Estadio Municipal de Tarancon, Tarancon
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Tarancón a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Levante 65%. The most likely result is 1-2. Expected goals: Tarancón 1.08, Levante 2.39.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Tarancón report no significant absences.
Levante report no significant absences.
Team news, Levante: Levante loses Manu Sánchez, the only left-back in the squad, sidelined by a muscle injury for the next Liga matches.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 3% for Tarancón, 34% for the draw and 63% for Levante. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 15%, 20% and 65%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Tarancón 1.08, Levante 2.39, 3.48 in total. Over 2.5 at 67%, both teams to score at 61%; the most likely score is 1-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 7.6 (over 9.5 at 24%). Expected yellow cards: 4 (over 3.5 at 55%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Levante win (65%, fair odds 1.53); double chance X2 rises to 85%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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