Navalcarnero vs Real Betis prediction
Copa del Rey · · Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Navalcarnero a 7% chance of winning, the draw 9% and Real Betis 84%. The most likely result is 1-4. Expected goals: Navalcarnero 1.25, Real Betis 4.00.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Navalcarnero report no significant absences.
Real Betis report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 7% for Navalcarnero, 9% for the draw and 84% for Real Betis. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 7%, 9% and 84%.
Expected goals: Navalcarnero 1.25, Real Betis 4.00, 5.25 in total. Over 2.5 at 89%, both teams to score at 70%; the most likely score is 1-4. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 7.8 (over 9.5 at 27%). Expected yellow cards: 4.2 (over 3.5 at 59%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Real Betis win (84%, fair odds 1.19); double chance X2 rises to 93%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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