1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
Bundesliga · · RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives 1. FC Köln a 19% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bayer Leverkusen 58%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.12, Bayer Leverkusen 2.04.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
1. FC Köln: position 15 with 9 points from 8 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-3-3), 9 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: D D L W L.
Bayer Leverkusen: position 6 with 13 points from 8 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-1-3), 18 goals scored and 16 conceded. Recent form: L L W W W.
On average 1. FC Köln take 1.13 points per game, Bayer Leverkusen 1.63.
Absences and team news
1. FC Köln are without L. Lochoshvili, Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson, A. Castro-Montes.
Bayer Leverkusen report no significant absences.
Team news, 1. FC Köln: Dallinga, Rondić, Skhiri, Hübers and van den Berg are missing; Ragnar Ache is doubtful. The attack is particularly hit.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 21% for 1. FC Köln, 23% for the draw and 56% for Bayer Leverkusen. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 19%, 23% and 58%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.12, Bayer Leverkusen 2.04, 3.16 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 60%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.5 (over 9.5 at 58%). Expected yellow cards: 3.7, with referee Felix Zwayer (over 3.5 at 51%).
Other factors
Rest days since the last match: 7 for 1. FC Köln, 3 for Bayer Leverkusen.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Bayer Leverkusen win (58%, fair odds 1.73); double chance X2 rises to 81%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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