SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin prediction
Bundesliga · · Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg
Live · 81'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives SC Freiburg a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Union Berlin 12%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: SC Freiburg 2.20, Union Berlin 0.81.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
SC Freiburg: position 4 with 16 points from 8 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-1-2), 18 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: W L L W D.
Union Berlin: position 16 with 7 points from 8 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-4-3), 7 goals scored and 19 conceded. Recent form: D D D W L.
On average SC Freiburg take 2.00 points per game, Union Berlin 0.88.
Absences and team news
SC Freiburg report no significant absences.
Union Berlin are without T. Rothe, Jeong Woo-Yeong, L. Querfeld, F. Uduokhai.
Team news, SC Freiburg: Freiburg have played many matches on short rest and beat Trabzon 1-0 on Thursday; some players have reported physical complaints.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 67% for SC Freiburg, 21% for the draw and 13% for Union Berlin. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 68%, 20% and 12%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: SC Freiburg 2.20, Union Berlin 0.81, 3.00 in total. Over 2.5 at 58%, both teams to score at 50%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.4 (over 9.5 at 57%). Expected yellow cards: 3.5, with referee Sascha Stegemann (over 3.5 at 47%).
Kick-off forecast in Dortmund: 10.5 °C, no rain, wind 6 km/h, pitch dry.
Other factors
Rest days since the last match: 3 for SC Freiburg, 7 for Union Berlin.
Union Berlin has a new coach, M. Lustrinelli, in charge for 38 days.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a SC Freiburg win (68%, fair odds 1.47); double chance 1X rises to 88%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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