1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 prediction
Bundesliga · · Prezero Arena, Sinsheim
Live · 44'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FC Schalke 04 15%. The most likely result is 2-1. Expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.21, FC Schalke 04 1.02.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
1899 Hoffenheim: position 14 with 9 points from 8 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-5), 14 goals scored and 16 conceded. Recent form: L W W L L.
FC Schalke 04: position 17 with 6 points from 8 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-3-4), 4 goals scored and 9 conceded. Recent form: L D L L D.
On average 1899 Hoffenheim take 1.13 points per game, FC Schalke 04 0.75.
Absences and team news
1899 Hoffenheim are without A. Daghim, A. Hložek, B. Conté.
FC Schalke 04 are without T. Becker, J. Dina Ebimbe, J. Adamu.
Team news, 1899 Hoffenheim: The side played Europa League in London on Thursday and had only three days of rest before this match.
Team news, FC Schalke 04: Out injured: Bachmann, Gantenbein, Højlund, Schallenberg, Sylla and Wöber; El-Faouzi and Gosens are returning.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 64% for 1899 Hoffenheim, 20% for the draw and 16% for FC Schalke 04. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 63%, 21% and 15%.
Expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.21, FC Schalke 04 1.02, 3.23 in total. Over 2.5 at 63%, both teams to score at 58%; the most likely score is 2-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.9 (over 9.5 at 63%). Expected yellow cards: 3.9, with referee Martin Petersen (over 3.5 at 54%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a 1899 Hoffenheim win (63%, fair odds 1.58); double chance 1X rises to 85%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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