Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo Riestra prediction
Liga Profesional Argentina ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Independ. Rivadavia a 56% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Deportivo Riestra 16%. The most likely result is 1-0. Expected goals: Independ. Rivadavia 1.51, Deportivo Riestra 0.69.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Independ. Rivadavia: position 1 with 34 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-4-2), 29 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: D W L D L.
Deportivo Riestra: position 15 with 11 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-8-7), 5 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: L L L D L.
On average Independ. Rivadavia take 2.13 points per game, Deportivo Riestra 0.69.
Absences and team news
Independ. Rivadavia report no significant absences.
Deportivo Riestra report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 54% for Independ. Rivadavia, 30% for the draw and 16% for Deportivo Riestra. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 56%, 28% and 16%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Independ. Rivadavia 1.51, Deportivo Riestra 0.69, 2.19 in total. Over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 40%; the most likely score is 1-0. The expected total is low: the model expects a tight, low-scoring game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Independ. Rivadavia win (56%, fair odds 1.79); double chance 1X rises to 84%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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