San Lorenzo vs Platense prediction
Liga Profesional Argentina ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives San Lorenzo a 36% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Platense 32%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: San Lorenzo 1.11, Platense 1.02.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
San Lorenzo: position 7 with 22 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-7-4), 14 goals scored and 14 conceded. Recent form: L D D W W.
Platense: position 12 with 16 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-7-6), 10 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: W W W L D.
On average San Lorenzo take 1.38 points per game, Platense 1.00.
Absences and team news
San Lorenzo report no significant absences.
Platense report no significant absences.
Team news, San Lorenzo: Rodrigo Auzmendi will miss the Platense match, serving a one-game suspension after picking up his fifth yellow card.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 35% for San Lorenzo, 33% for the draw and 31% for Platense. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 36%, 32% and 32%.
Expected goals: San Lorenzo 1.11, Platense 1.02, 2.13 in total. Over 2.5 at 36%, both teams to score at 44%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is low: the model expects a tight, low-scoring game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a San Lorenzo win (36%, fair odds 2.78); double chance 1X rises to 68%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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