Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield prediction
Liga Profesional Argentina ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Union Santa Fe a 35% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Velez Sarsfield 36%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Union Santa Fe 1.26, Velez Sarsfield 1.27.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Union Santa Fe: position 8 with 21 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-6-5), 24 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: W D W D L.
Velez Sarsfield: position 3 with 28 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-7-2), 18 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: L D W W L.
On average Union Santa Fe take 1.31 points per game, Velez Sarsfield 1.75.
Absences and team news
Union Santa Fe report no significant absences.
Velez Sarsfield report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 36% for Union Santa Fe, 29% for the draw and 36% for Velez Sarsfield. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 35%, 29% and 36%.
Expected goals: Union Santa Fe 1.26, Velez Sarsfield 1.27, 2.53 in total. Over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 53%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Velez Sarsfield win (36%, fair odds 2.80); double chance X2 rises to 65%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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