Internacional vs Coritiba prediction
Brasileirão Série A ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Internacional a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Coritiba 15%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Internacional 1.92, Coritiba 0.87.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Internacional: position 16 with 38 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-11-14), 38 goals scored and 42 conceded. Recent form: W L W L D.
Coritiba: position 12 with 42 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 11-9-14), 40 goals scored and 51 conceded. Recent form: L W L L D.
On average Internacional take 1.06 points per game, Coritiba 1.27.
Absences and team news
Internacional are without Anthoni, Alan Patrick, S. Rochet, Thiago Maia.
Coritiba are without Lucas Ronier, Lucas Taverna.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 62% for Internacional, 23% for the draw and 16% for Coritiba. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 61%, 24% and 15%.
Expected goals: Internacional 1.92, Coritiba 0.87, 2.78 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 50%; the most likely score is 2-0.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Internacional win (61%, fair odds 1.64); double chance 1X rises to 85%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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