Flamengo vs Gremio prediction
Brasileirão Série A ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Flamengo a 88% chance of winning, the draw 9% and Gremio 3%. The most likely result is 3-0. Expected goals: Flamengo 3.25, Gremio 0.55.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Flamengo: position 1 with 76 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 23-7-4), 71 goals scored and 29 conceded. Recent form: W W W W W.
Gremio: position 18 with 37 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-10-15), 38 goals scored and 47 conceded. Recent form: L W W L D.
On average Flamengo take 2.21 points per game, Gremio 1.12.
Absences and team news
Flamengo are without Emerson Royal, G. Plata, Danilo, Lucas Paqueta.
Gremio are without Weverton, Carlos Vinicius, C. Pavon, F. Amuzu.
Team news, Gremio: Grêmio ready for rotation: some starters will be rested ahead of Saturday's Copa do Brasil semifinal against Atlético-MG.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 86% for Flamengo, 9% for the draw and 4% for Gremio. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 88%, 9% and 3%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Flamengo 3.25, Gremio 0.55, 3.79 in total. Over 2.5 at 73%, both teams to score at 41%; the most likely score is 3-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Flamengo win (88%, fair odds 1.14); double chance 1X rises to 97%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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