Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama prediction
Brasileirão Série A ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Atletico Paranaense a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Vasco DA Gama 31%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Atletico Paranaense 1.43, Vasco DA Gama 1.23.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Atletico Paranaense: position 5 with 54 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 15-9-10), 51 goals scored and 43 conceded. Recent form: L L D L W.
Vasco DA Gama: position 13 with 41 points from 33 matches (won-drawn-lost 11-8-14), 43 goals scored and 50 conceded. Recent form: W L W L D.
On average Atletico Paranaense take 1.64 points per game, Vasco DA Gama 1.19.
Absences and team news
Atletico Paranaense are without Santos, C. Teran, João Cruz, Claudinho.
Vasco DA Gama are without A. Gomez, C. Cuesta, Cauan Barros, Paulo Henrique.
Team news, Vasco DA Gama: Vasco shows signs of fatigue: the coach is expected to rotate the lineup ahead of a decisive match on the calendar.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 39% for Atletico Paranaense, 29% for the draw and 33% for Vasco DA Gama. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 40%, 28% and 31%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Atletico Paranaense 1.43, Vasco DA Gama 1.23, 2.66 in total. Over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Atletico Paranaense win (40%, fair odds 2.48); double chance 1X rises to 69%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram