VfL Bochum vs Karlsruher SC prediction
2. Bundesliga · · Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives VfL Bochum a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Karlsruher SC 19%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: VfL Bochum 2.03, Karlsruher SC 1.12.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
VfL Bochum: position 12 with 11 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-2-5), 8 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: W D L L L.
Karlsruher SC: position 16 with 11 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-2-5), 13 goals scored and 21 conceded. Recent form: W L W L L.
On average VfL Bochum take 1.10 points per game, Karlsruher SC 1.10.
Absences and team news
VfL Bochum are without K. Miyoshi, G. Holtmann.
Karlsruher SC are without M. Franke, D. H. Zor, N. Eichinger, S. Jung.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 57% for VfL Bochum, 22% for the draw and 20% for Karlsruher SC. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 57%, 23% and 19%.
Expected goals: VfL Bochum 2.03, Karlsruher SC 1.12, 3.14 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 47%). Expected yellow cards: 3.1, with referee Florian Badstubner (over 3.5 at 38%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a VfL Bochum win (57%, fair odds 1.74); double chance 1X rises to 81%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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