1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 prediction
2. Bundesliga · · Voith-Arena, Heidenheim
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 51% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Hannover 96 25%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.95, Hannover 96 1.34.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
1. FC Heidenheim: position 7 with 15 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-3-3), 17 goals scored and 18 conceded. Recent form: L D L D D.
Hannover 96: position 15 with 11 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-2-5), 10 goals scored and 16 conceded. Recent form: W L D L W.
On average 1. FC Heidenheim take 1.50 points per game, Hannover 96 1.10.
Absences and team news
1. FC Heidenheim are without O. Mhamdi, M. Honsak.
Hannover 96 are without M. Neubauer, K. Oudenne, B. Allgeier.
Team news, 1. FC Heidenheim: Frank Schmidt will leave Heidenheim at the end of the season: the announcement came at the start of the week.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 50% for 1. FC Heidenheim, 24% for the draw and 26% for Hannover 96. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 51%, 24% and 25%.
Expected goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.95, Hannover 96 1.34, 3.29 in total. Over 2.5 at 64%, both teams to score at 64%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.7 (over 9.5 at 49%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Robin Braun (over 3.5 at 52%).
Kick-off forecast in Heidenheim an der Brenz: 7.3 °C, no rain, wind 8 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a 1. FC Heidenheim win (51%, fair odds 1.97); double chance 1X rises to 75%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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