1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli prediction
2. Bundesliga · · Avnet Arena, Magdeburg
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 37% chance of winning, the draw 27% and FC St. Pauli 36%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.48, FC St. Pauli 1.48.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
1. FC Magdeburg: position 5 with 17 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-2-3), 21 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: D W L W D.
FC St. Pauli: position 8 with 12 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-6-2), 12 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: L D D W D.
On average 1. FC Magdeburg take 1.70 points per game, FC St. Pauli 1.20.
Absences and team news
1. FC Magdeburg report no significant absences.
FC St. Pauli are without M. Kaars.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 36% for 1. FC Magdeburg, 27% for the draw and 37% for FC St. Pauli. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 37%, 27% and 36%.
Expected goals: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.48, FC St. Pauli 1.48, 2.96 in total. Over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 61%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.2 (over 9.5 at 44%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Tom Bauer (over 3.5 at 51%).
Kick-off forecast in Magdeburg: 8.4 °C, no rain, wind 6 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a 1. FC Magdeburg win (37%, fair odds 2.72); double chance 1X rises to 64%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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