Girona vs Almeria prediction
LaLiga 2 · · Estadi Montilivi, Girona
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Girona a 48% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Almeria 26%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Girona 1.65, Almeria 1.16.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Girona: position 8 with 21 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-3-3), 22 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: L W W D D.
Almeria: position 2 with 26 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-2-2), 23 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: D D W W W.
On average Girona take 1.75 points per game, Almeria 2.17.
Absences and team news
Girona report no significant absences.
Almeria report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 48% for Girona, 26% for the draw and 25% for Almeria. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 48%, 27% and 26%.
Expected goals: Girona 1.65, Almeria 1.16, 2.81 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.3 (over 9.5 at 44%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Gorka Etayo Herrera (over 3.5 at 51%).
Kick-off forecast in Girona: 18.5 °C, no rain, wind 20 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Girona win (48%, fair odds 2.09); double chance 1X rises to 74%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram