Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid prediction
LaLiga 2 · · El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini, Gijon
Live · 45'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Sporting Gijon a 41% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Valladolid 30%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Sporting Gijon 1.35, Valladolid 1.13.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Sporting Gijon: position 7 with 22 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-1-4), 13 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: W L W W W.
Valladolid: position 13 with 15 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-3-5), 20 goals scored and 19 conceded. Recent form: W L L W D.
On average Sporting Gijon take 1.83 points per game, Valladolid 1.25.
Absences and team news
Sporting Gijon are without César Gelabert, Aimar Duñabeitia, A. Sarco, M. Rodriguez.
Valladolid are without Iván Garriel, Luis Chacón, Juanmi Latasa, Pablo Tomeo.
Team news, Sporting Gijon: Sporting without Guille Bueno and De Rooij; left-back Pablo García also injured after the trip to Ceuta.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 41% for Sporting Gijon, 30% for the draw and 30% for Valladolid. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 41%, 29% and 30%.
Expected goals: Sporting Gijon 1.35, Valladolid 1.13, 2.48 in total. Over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.3 (over 9.5 at 45%). Expected yellow cards: 3.9, with referee Daniel Palencia Caballero (over 3.5 at 54%).
Kick-off forecast in Gijón: 19.1 °C, no rain, wind 5 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Sporting Gijon win (41%, fair odds 2.46); double chance 1X rises to 70%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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