Botafogo vs Atletico-MG prediction
Brasileirão Série A ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Botafogo a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico-MG 16%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Botafogo 1.92, Atletico-MG 0.89.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Botafogo: position 11 with 42 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 11-9-14), 46 goals scored and 53 conceded. Recent form: W L L W D.
Atletico-MG: position 7 with 50 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 14-8-12), 44 goals scored and 40 conceded. Recent form: L L L W W.
On average Botafogo take 1.18 points per game, Atletico-MG 1.52.
Absences and team news
Botafogo are without Danilo Santos, J. Barrera, Arthur Chaves, Kaio Pantaleao.
Atletico-MG are without Ruan Tressoldi, M. Cassierra, Reinier, Fred.
Team news, Atletico-MG: Atlético-MG in Rio with many reserves: about ten starters stayed in Belo Horizonte ahead of the Copa do Brasil semifinal against Grêmio.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 60% for Botafogo, 23% for the draw and 17% for Atletico-MG. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 61%, 24% and 16%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Botafogo 1.92, Atletico-MG 0.89, 2.81 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 51%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Botafogo win (61%, fair odds 1.65); double chance 1X rises to 84%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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