Palmeiras vs Remo prediction
Brasileirão Série A ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Palmeiras a 80% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Remo 5%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Palmeiras 2.62, Remo 0.58.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Palmeiras: position 2 with 73 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 21-10-3), 62 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: W D W W W.
Remo: position 19 with 29 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-11-17), 37 goals scored and 57 conceded. Recent form: L W L D D.
On average Palmeiras take 2.12 points per game, Remo 0.88.
Absences and team news
Palmeiras are without J. López, A. Giay, R. Sosa, Allan.
Remo are without Zé Ricardo, Yago Pikachu, Alef Manga, Joao Lucas.
Team news, Palmeiras: Abel Ferreira is considering resting several starters: Palmeiras have played ten games in 31 days, and three days later comes the Copa do Brasil semifinal.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 80% for Palmeiras, 13% for the draw and 6% for Remo. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 80%, 14% and 5%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Palmeiras 2.62, Remo 0.58, 3.20 in total. Over 2.5 at 62%, both teams to score at 41%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Palmeiras win (80%, fair odds 1.24); double chance 1X rises to 95%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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