Sao Paulo vs Corinthians prediction
Brasileirão Série A ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Sao Paulo a 38% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Corinthians 31%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.17, Corinthians 1.03.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Sao Paulo: position 10 with 44 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 12-8-14), 39 goals scored and 39 conceded. Recent form: D L D W W.
Corinthians: position 17 with 37 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-10-15), 36 goals scored and 42 conceded. Recent form: D W L D L.
On average Sao Paulo take 1.30 points per game, Corinthians 1.09.
Absences and team news
Sao Paulo are without Marcos Antonio, Sabino, Artur, Ferreira.
Corinthians are without Matheuzinho, Gabriel Paulista, Raniele, M. Depay.
Team news, Corinthians: Corinthians has been led by Clarence Seedorf since mid-October: a recent coaching change, with the team in the relegation zone.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 37% for Sao Paulo, 31% for the draw and 32% for Corinthians. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 38%, 32% and 31%.
Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.17, Corinthians 1.03, 2.20 in total. Over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 46%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is low: the model expects a tight, low-scoring game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Sao Paulo win (38%, fair odds 2.66); double chance 1X rises to 69%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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