Necaxa vs Club Tijuana prediction
Liga MX · · Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Necaxa a 37% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Club Tijuana 35%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Necaxa 1.43, Club Tijuana 1.38.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Necaxa: position 17 with 13 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-4-9), 17 goals scored and 28 conceded. Recent form: W L D L L.
Club Tijuana: position 8 with 22 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-7-4), 25 goals scored and 22 conceded. Recent form: L D D W D.
On average Necaxa take 0.67 points per game, Club Tijuana 1.47.
Absences and team news
Necaxa report no significant absences.
Club Tijuana are without R. Árciga, J. Vega, Y. Padilla.
Team news, Necaxa: Necaxa have been mathematically eliminated from the Liguilla since matchday 14 and close the season with no league target left.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 38% for Necaxa, 27% for the draw and 35% for Club Tijuana. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 37%, 28% and 35%.
Expected goals: Necaxa 1.43, Club Tijuana 1.38, 2.81 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 58%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Necaxa win (37%, fair odds 2.68); double chance 1X rises to 65%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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