Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez prediction
Liga MX · · Estadio Libertad Financiera, San Luis de Potosi
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Atletico San Luis a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and FC Juarez 16%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Atletico San Luis 2.05, FC Juarez 0.96.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Atletico San Luis: position 13 with 19 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-4-7), 19 goals scored and 24 conceded. Recent form: L L W W D.
FC Juarez: position 18 with 11 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-2-11), 13 goals scored and 34 conceded. Recent form: W W D L L.
On average Atletico San Luis take 1.27 points per game, FC Juarez 0.53.
Absences and team news
Atletico San Luis are without R. Torres.
FC Juarez are without J. Murillo, J. Rodríguez, J. Aquino, J. Torres.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 61% for Atletico San Luis, 22% for the draw and 17% for FC Juarez. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 62%, 22% and 16%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Atletico San Luis 2.05, FC Juarez 0.96, 3.01 in total. Over 2.5 at 58%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Atletico San Luis win (62%, fair odds 1.62); double chance 1X rises to 84%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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