Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna prediction
Liga MX · · Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Atlante FC a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Santos Laguna 31%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Atlante FC 1.68, Santos Laguna 1.40.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Atlante FC: position 16 with 14 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-5-8), 16 goals scored and 26 conceded. Recent form: L L L W L.
Santos Laguna: position 6 with 25 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-1-7), 23 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: W W L W W.
On average Atlante FC take 0.93 points per game, Santos Laguna 1.47.
Absences and team news
Atlante FC are without E. Tercero, L. Puente, E. Jiménez.
Santos Laguna are without D. González, E. Orona, A. López.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 44% for Atlante FC, 25% for the draw and 31% for Santos Laguna. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 43%, 26% and 31%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Atlante FC 1.68, Santos Laguna 1.40, 3.08 in total. Over 2.5 at 59%, both teams to score at 62%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Atlante FC win (43%, fair odds 2.32); double chance 1X rises to 69%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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