Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix prediction
A-League · · Mount Smart Stadium, Auckland
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Auckland a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Wellington Phoenix 35%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Auckland 1.45, Wellington Phoenix 1.38.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Auckland: position 7 with 5 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-2-1), 6 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: D D L W.
Wellington Phoenix: position 1 with 10 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-1-0), 7 goals scored and 1 conceded. Recent form: D W W W.
On average Auckland take 1.33 points per game, Wellington Phoenix 3.00.
Absences and team news
Auckland are without L. Brook, J. Brimmer, L. Vicelich, A. Calver.
Wellington Phoenix are without F. Conchie, I. Hughes, J. Smith.
Team news, Auckland: Midfielder Jake Brimmer is in the squad but doubtful after an injury picked up at Thursday's training.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 41% for Auckland, 26% for the draw and 32% for Wellington Phoenix. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 38%, 27% and 35%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Auckland 1.45, Wellington Phoenix 1.38, 2.83 in total. Over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Auckland win (38%, fair odds 2.65); double chance 1X rises to 65%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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