Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets prediction
A-League · · HBF Park, Perth
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Perth Glory a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Newcastle Jets 36%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Perth Glory 1.78, Newcastle Jets 1.68.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Perth Glory: position 4 with 6 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-0-2), 8 goals scored and 5 conceded. Recent form: W W L L.
Newcastle Jets: position 10 with 2 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-2-2), 4 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: L L D D.
On average Perth Glory take 1.00 points per game, Newcastle Jets 0.67.
Absences and team news
Perth Glory report no significant absences.
Newcastle Jets report no significant absences.
Team news, Perth Glory: Perth Glory captain Tom Lawrence is serving a one-match suspension and will miss the Newcastle game.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 40% for Perth Glory, 24% for the draw and 36% for Newcastle Jets. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 40%, 24% and 36%.
Expected goals: Perth Glory 1.78, Newcastle Jets 1.68, 3.46 in total. Over 2.5 at 67%, both teams to score at 69%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Perth Glory win (40%, fair odds 2.50); double chance 1X rises to 64%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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