Melbourne City vs Sydney prediction
A-League · · AAMI Park, Melbourne
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Melbourne City a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Sydney 31%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Melbourne City 1.58, Sydney 1.33.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Melbourne City: position 3 with 7 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-1-1), 6 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: W W D L.
Sydney: position 5 with 5 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-2-1), 6 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: L D W D.
On average Melbourne City take 1.33 points per game, Sydney 1.67.
Absences and team news
Melbourne City report no significant absences.
Sydney report no significant absences.
Team news, Melbourne City: Melbourne City are missing several injured players, including Max Caputo, Macklin Freke and Alessandro Lopane.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 43% for Melbourne City, 26% for the draw and 31% for Sydney. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 42%, 27% and 31%.
Expected goals: Melbourne City 1.58, Sydney 1.33, 2.91 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 60%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Melbourne City win (42%, fair odds 2.37); double chance 1X rises to 69%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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