Aarhus vs AC Horsens prediction
Superliga Danimarca · · Vejlby Stadion, Aarhus
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Aarhus a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AC Horsens 20%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Aarhus 1.98, AC Horsens 1.11.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Aarhus: position 9 with 12 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-6-5), 17 goals scored and 21 conceded. Recent form: L W D W D.
AC Horsens: position 7 with 16 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-4-5), 23 goals scored and 21 conceded. Recent form: L W D D D.
On average Aarhus take 0.92 points per game, AC Horsens 1.23.
Absences and team news
Aarhus are without Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad, M. Hedenstad Christiansen, M. Anderson, R. Carstensen.
AC Horsens are without M. Kupijbida, Y. Ouorou, O. Kolskogen, A. Moro.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 57% for Aarhus, 23% for the draw and 20% for AC Horsens. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 57%, 24% and 20%.
Expected goals: Aarhus 1.98, AC Horsens 1.11, 3.09 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.7 (over 9.5 at 49%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Michael Tykgaard (over 3.5 at 51%).
Kick-off forecast in Risskov: 7.6 °C, no rain, wind 12 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Aarhus win (57%, fair odds 1.77); double chance 1X rises to 80%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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