FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske prediction
Superliga Danimarca · · MCH Arena, Herning
Live · 45'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives FC Midtjylland a 73% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Sonderjyske 10%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 2.57, Sonderjyske 0.89.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
FC Midtjylland: position 1 with 31 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-4-0), 27 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: W W W W D.
Sonderjyske: position 12 with 8 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-2-9), 17 goals scored and 31 conceded. Recent form: L L W L W.
On average FC Midtjylland take 2.38 points per game, Sonderjyske 0.62.
Absences and team news
FC Midtjylland are without R. Kristensen, E. Ólafsson, Cho Gue-Sung, D. Castillo.
Sonderjyske are without E. Duru, I. Seydi, N. Shinton, J. Christensen.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 72% for FC Midtjylland, 16% for the draw and 12% for Sonderjyske. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 73%, 17% and 10%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 2.57, Sonderjyske 0.89, 3.46 in total. Over 2.5 at 67%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.3 (over 9.5 at 45%). Expected yellow cards: 3.7, with referee Morten Krogh (over 3.5 at 49%).
Kick-off forecast in Herning: 6 °C, no rain, wind 7 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a FC Midtjylland win (73%, fair odds 1.37); double chance 1X rises to 90%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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