FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano prediction
Super League Svizzera · · Cornaredo, Lugano
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives FC ST. Gallen a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and FC Lugano 36%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: FC ST. Gallen 1.59, FC Lugano 1.53.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
FC ST. Gallen: position 5 with 19 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-1-5), 19 goals scored and 22 conceded. Recent form: W L W W L.
FC Lugano: position 1 with 34 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 11-1-0), 36 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: W W W W W.
On average FC ST. Gallen take 1.58 points per game, FC Lugano 2.83.
Absences and team news
FC ST. Gallen are without A. Balde, C. Witzig, J. Ruiz.
FC Lugano are without H. Delcroix, R. Steffen, D. Moncada.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 40% for FC ST. Gallen, 25% for the draw and 35% for FC Lugano. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 38%, 26% and 36%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: FC ST. Gallen 1.59, FC Lugano 1.53, 3.12 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 63%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.7 (over 9.5 at 49%). Expected yellow cards: 3.6 (over 3.5 at 47%).
Kick-off forecast in Lugano: 12.3 °C, no rain, wind 4 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a FC ST. Gallen win (38%, fair odds 2.60); double chance 1X rises to 64%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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