FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 prediction
Super League Svizzera · · Stockhorn Arena, Thun
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives FC Thun a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and FC Basel 1893 33%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: FC Thun 1.81, FC Basel 1893 1.58.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
FC Thun: position 9 with 13 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-1-7), 24 goals scored and 34 conceded. Recent form: W L L W L.
FC Basel 1893: position 7 with 14 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-2-6), 18 goals scored and 22 conceded. Recent form: L D L L W.
On average FC Thun take 1.08 points per game, FC Basel 1893 1.17.
Absences and team news
FC Thun are without N. Zoukit, N. Maier, F. Saiz.
FC Basel 1893 are without K. Tsunemoto, X. Shaqiri, K. Olaigbe, M. Salvi.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 42% for FC Thun, 24% for the draw and 34% for FC Basel 1893. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 42%, 24% and 33%.
Expected goals: FC Thun 1.81, FC Basel 1893 1.58, 3.38 in total. Over 2.5 at 66%, both teams to score at 67%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.6 (over 9.5 at 48%). Expected yellow cards: 3.9 (over 3.5 at 53%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a FC Thun win (42%, fair odds 2.35); double chance 1X rises to 67%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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