Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction
Bundesliga Austria · · Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Sturm Graz a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Red Bull Salzburg 39%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Sturm Graz 1.63, Red Bull Salzburg 1.69.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Sturm Graz: position 4 with 19 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-4-2), 19 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: D D W W L.
Red Bull Salzburg: position 2 with 27 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-3-0), 29 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: W W W D W.
On average Sturm Graz take 1.73 points per game, Red Bull Salzburg 2.45.
Absences and team news
Sturm Graz are without D. Khudyakov, A. Vallci, V. Matoshi.
Red Bull Salzburg are without K. Boma, D. Schmid, S. Kitano, N. Veratschnig.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 36% for Sturm Graz, 24% for the draw and 39% for Red Bull Salzburg. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 36%, 25% and 39%.
Expected goals: Sturm Graz 1.63, Red Bull Salzburg 1.69, 3.33 in total. Over 2.5 at 65%, both teams to score at 67%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 48%). Expected yellow cards: 3.6, with referee Walter Altmann (over 3.5 at 49%).
Other factors
Rest days since the last match: 3 for Sturm Graz, 3 for Red Bull Salzburg.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Red Bull Salzburg win (39%, fair odds 2.57); double chance X2 rises to 64%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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