Portugalete vs Real Unión prediction

Copa del Rey · Wed, 4 Nov, 19:00 CET

Updated: Tue, 3 Nov, 23:34 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Portugalete a 30% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Real Unión 41%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Portugalete 1.14, Real Unión 1.37.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Absences and team news

Portugalete report no significant absences.

Real Unión report no significant absences.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 29% for Portugalete, 30% for the draw and 41% for Real Unión. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 30%, 29% and 41%.

Expected goals: Portugalete 1.14, Real Unión 1.37, 2.51 in total. Over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Real Unión win (41%, fair odds 2.44); double chance X2 rises to 70%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

Missing

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