Reddis vs Barakaldo prediction
Copa del Rey ·
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Reddis a 26% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Barakaldo 45%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Reddis 1.04, Barakaldo 1.43.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Reddis report no significant absences.
Barakaldo report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 27% for Reddis, 28% for the draw and 45% for Barakaldo. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 26%, 29% and 45%.
Expected goals: Reddis 1.04, Barakaldo 1.43, 2.47 in total. Over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 50%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Barakaldo win (45%, fair odds 2.23); double chance X2 rises to 74%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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