Atlas vs CF Pachuca prediction
Liga MX · · Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Atlas a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and CF Pachuca 36%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Atlas 1.54, CF Pachuca 1.49.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Atlas: position 5 with 27 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-3-5), 27 goals scored and 30 conceded. Recent form: L W W L W.
CF Pachuca: position 7 with 22 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-4-6), 29 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: W W W L L.
On average Atlas take 1.80 points per game, CF Pachuca 1.27.
Absences and team news
Atlas report no significant absences.
CF Pachuca report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 37% for Atlas, 26% for the draw and 36% for CF Pachuca. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 38%, 26% and 36%.
Expected goals: Atlas 1.54, CF Pachuca 1.49, 3.02 in total. Over 2.5 at 58%, both teams to score at 62%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.9 (over 9.5 at 63%). Expected yellow cards: 4.2, with referee Fernando Hernandez Gomez (over 3.5 at 59%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Atlas win (38%, fair odds 2.64); double chance 1X rises to 64%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram