Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul prediction
Liga MX · · Estadio Universitario, Monterey
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Tigres UANL a 26% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cruz Azul 49%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Tigres UANL 1.25, Cruz Azul 1.79.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Tigres UANL: position 15 with 15 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-6-7), 17 goals scored and 25 conceded. Recent form: L L D L D.
Cruz Azul: position 1 with 32 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-2-4), 37 goals scored and 26 conceded. Recent form: W W W W W.
On average Tigres UANL take 1.00 points per game, Cruz Azul 1.93.
Absences and team news
Tigres UANL report no significant absences.
Cruz Azul report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 27% for Tigres UANL, 25% for the draw and 48% for Cruz Azul. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 26%, 25% and 49%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Tigres UANL 1.25, Cruz Azul 1.79, 3.04 in total. Over 2.5 at 59%, both teams to score at 61%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 11.2 (over 9.5 at 66%). Expected yellow cards: 4.5, with referee Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas (over 3.5 at 64%).
Kick-off forecast in San Nicolás de los Garza: 20.3 °C, no rain, wind 7 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Cruz Azul win (49%, fair odds 2.04); double chance X2 rises to 74%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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