U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club America prediction
Liga MX · · Estadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives U.N.A.M. - Pumas a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Club America 41%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1.43, Club America 1.63.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
U.N.A.M. - Pumas: position 11 with 20 points from 15 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-5-5), 22 goals scored and 24 conceded. Recent form: W D L W D.
Club America: position 2 with 29 points from 15 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-5-2), 36 goals scored and 21 conceded. Recent form: D D L W W.
On average U.N.A.M. - Pumas take 1.33 points per game, Club America 1.93.
Absences and team news
U.N.A.M. - Pumas report no significant absences.
Club America report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 33% for U.N.A.M. - Pumas, 26% for the draw and 41% for Club America. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 33%, 26% and 41%.
Expected goals: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1.43, Club America 1.63, 3.06 in total. Over 2.5 at 59%, both teams to score at 62%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.9 (over 9.5 at 63%). Expected yellow cards: 3.5, with referee Cesar Arturo Ramos (over 3.5 at 47%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Club America win (41%, fair odds 2.42); double chance X2 rises to 67%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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