Toluca vs Monterrey prediction
Liga MX · · Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Toluca a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Monterrey 20%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Toluca 2.16, Monterrey 1.21.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Toluca: position 4 with 27 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-6-3), 35 goals scored and 21 conceded. Recent form: W D D D D.
Monterrey: position 10 with 21 points from 15 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-3-6), 26 goals scored and 25 conceded. Recent form: L D L W W.
On average Toluca take 1.60 points per game, Monterrey 1.50.
Absences and team news
Toluca report no significant absences.
Monterrey report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 58% for Toluca, 22% for the draw and 20% for Monterrey. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 58%, 22% and 20%.
Expected goals: Toluca 2.16, Monterrey 1.21, 3.37 in total. Over 2.5 at 65%, both teams to score at 63%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.9 (over 9.5 at 63%). Expected yellow cards: 3.6, with referee Daniel Quintero Huitron (over 3.5 at 49%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Toluca win (58%, fair odds 1.72); double chance 1X rises to 80%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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