Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction
J1 League · · Machida GION Stadium, Tokyo
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Machida Zelvia a 31% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Sanfrecce Hiroshima 42%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Machida Zelvia 1.25, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.50.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Machida Zelvia: position 4 with 28 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-4-1), 30 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: D D W W W.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima: position 3 with 29 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-2-2), 32 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: W W L W W.
On average Machida Zelvia take 2.15 points per game, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2.23.
Absences and team news
Machida Zelvia report no significant absences.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima report no significant absences.
Team news, Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Forward Mutsuki Kato and midfielder Takumu Kawamura have suffered an injury to the medial collateral ligament of the right knee.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 31% for Machida Zelvia, 27% for the draw and 42% for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 31%, 28% and 42%.
Expected goals: Machida Zelvia 1.25, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.50, 2.75 in total. Over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.3 (over 9.5 at 45%). Expected yellow cards: 2.6 (over 3.5 at 27%).
Kick-off forecast in Tokyo: 16.8 °C, no rain, wind 5 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win (42%, fair odds 2.40); double chance X2 rises to 69%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram