Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka prediction
J1 League · · Panasonic Stadium Suita, Suita
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Gamba Osaka a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Cerezo Osaka 31%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Gamba Osaka 1.56, Cerezo Osaka 1.34.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Gamba Osaka: position 17 with 12 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-6-5), 14 goals scored and 21 conceded. Recent form: D D W D L.
Cerezo Osaka: position 13 with 14 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-5-5), 13 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: L D D L D.
On average Gamba Osaka take 0.92 points per game, Cerezo Osaka 1.08.
Absences and team news
Gamba Osaka report no significant absences.
Cerezo Osaka report no significant absences.
Team news, Gamba Osaka: Gamba Osaka drew 3-3 away in the Asian Champions League at Pohang on November 4, four days before this match.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 42% for Gamba Osaka, 27% for the draw and 31% for Cerezo Osaka. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 42%, 27% and 31%.
Expected goals: Gamba Osaka 1.56, Cerezo Osaka 1.34, 2.90 in total. Over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.8 (over 9.5 at 50%). Expected yellow cards: 2.9, with referee Atsushi Kamimura (over 3.5 at 33%).
Kick-off forecast in Saitama: 17 °C, no rain, wind 6 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Gamba Osaka win (42%, fair odds 2.40); double chance 1X rises to 69%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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