Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United prediction
K League 1 · · Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Daejeon
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Daejeon Citizen a 50% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Incheon United 23%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Daejeon Citizen 1.62, Incheon United 1.04.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Daejeon Citizen: position 3 with 49 points from 33 matches (won-drawn-lost 13-10-10), 53 goals scored and 41 conceded. Recent form: W W W D D.
Incheon United: position 6 with 46 points from 33 matches (won-drawn-lost 12-10-11), 43 goals scored and 35 conceded. Recent form: W D W D D.
On average Daejeon Citizen take 1.48 points per game, Incheon United 1.39.
Absences and team news
Daejeon Citizen report no significant absences.
Incheon United report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 50% for Daejeon Citizen, 26% for the draw and 24% for Incheon United. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 50%, 27% and 23%.
Expected goals: Daejeon Citizen 1.62, Incheon United 1.04, 2.66 in total. Over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 53%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 8.2 (over 9.5 at 32%). Expected yellow cards: 3.1 (over 3.5 at 38%).
Kick-off forecast in Daejeon: 11.2 °C, no rain, wind 7 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Daejeon Citizen win (50%, fair odds 2.01); double chance 1X rises to 77%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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