FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC prediction
K League 1 · · Seoul World Cup Stadium, Seoul
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives FC Seoul a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Ulsan Hyundai FC 31%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: FC Seoul 1.63, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.36.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
FC Seoul: position 1 with 67 points from 33 matches (won-drawn-lost 20-7-6), 61 goals scored and 29 conceded. Recent form: D D W L W.
Ulsan Hyundai FC: position 2 with 51 points from 33 matches (won-drawn-lost 15-6-12), 52 goals scored and 47 conceded. Recent form: D W L L W.
On average FC Seoul take 2.03 points per game, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.55.
Absences and team news
FC Seoul report no significant absences.
Ulsan Hyundai FC report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 43% for FC Seoul, 25% for the draw and 32% for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 43%, 26% and 31%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: FC Seoul 1.63, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.36, 2.99 in total. Over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 61%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 8.1 (over 9.5 at 31%). Expected yellow cards: 2.9 (over 3.5 at 33%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a FC Seoul win (43%, fair odds 2.35); double chance 1X rises to 69%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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