Cray Wanderers vs Stockport County prediction
FA Cup · · Flamingo Park, Chislehurst
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Cray Wanderers a 6% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Stockport County 80%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Cray Wanderers 0.75, Stockport County 2.84.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Cray Wanderers report no significant absences.
Stockport County report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 7% for Cray Wanderers, 13% for the draw and 80% for Stockport County. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 6%, 14% and 80%.
Expected goals: Cray Wanderers 0.75, Stockport County 2.84, 3.59 in total. Over 2.5 at 70%, both teams to score at 50%; the most likely score is 0-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 8.1 (over 9.5 at 31%). Expected yellow cards: 2.8 (over 3.5 at 30%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Stockport County win (80%, fair odds 1.25); double chance X2 rises to 94%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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