Stafford Rangers vs Grimsby prediction
FA Cup · · Marston Road, Stafford
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Stafford Rangers a 8% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Grimsby 75%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Stafford Rangers 0.71, Grimsby 2.48.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Stafford Rangers report no significant absences.
Grimsby are without K. Green, C. Pym, A. Cook, J. Sweeney.
Team news, Stafford Rangers: Defender Mitch Clarke is unavailable for an undetermined period, due to an injury picked up in the league.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 8% for Stafford Rangers, 15% for the draw and 77% for Grimsby. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 8%, 17% and 75%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Stafford Rangers 0.71, Grimsby 2.48, 3.19 in total. Over 2.5 at 62%, both teams to score at 47%; the most likely score is 0-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 8.1 (over 9.5 at 30%). Expected yellow cards: 2.6 (over 3.5 at 26%).
Kick-off forecast in Stafford: 3.6 °C, no rain, wind 7 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Grimsby win (75%, fair odds 1.33); double chance X2 rises to 92%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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