Wimborne Town vs Crawley Town prediction
FA Cup · · The Cuthbury, Wimborne
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Wimborne Town a 16% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Crawley Town 61%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Wimborne Town 1.02, Crawley Town 2.11.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Wimborne Town report no significant absences.
Crawley Town report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 18% for Wimborne Town, 20% for the draw and 62% for Crawley Town. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 16%, 22% and 61%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Wimborne Town 1.02, Crawley Town 2.11, 3.13 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 7.9 (over 9.5 at 28%). Expected yellow cards: 2.7 (over 3.5 at 29%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Crawley Town win (61%, fair odds 1.63); double chance X2 rises to 84%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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