Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday prediction
FA Cup · · Boundary Park, Oldham
Live · 41'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Oldham a 26% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sheffield Wednesday 48%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Oldham 1.19, Sheffield Wednesday 1.68.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Oldham report no significant absences.
Sheffield Wednesday report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 26% for Oldham, 26% for the draw and 48% for Sheffield Wednesday. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 26%, 26% and 48%.
Expected goals: Oldham 1.19, Sheffield Wednesday 1.68, 2.86 in total. Over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 58%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 7.8 (over 9.5 at 26%). Expected yellow cards: 2.5 (over 3.5 at 25%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Sheffield Wednesday win (48%, fair odds 2.09); double chance X2 rises to 74%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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