Virtus Entella vs Modena prediction
Serie B · · Stadio Comunale, Chiavari
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Virtus Entella a 31% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Modena 39%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Virtus Entella 1.15, Modena 1.32.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Virtus Entella: position 15 with 10 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-4-4), 11 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: L D L W D.
Modena: position 3 with 20 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-2-2), 18 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: D W W L W.
On average Virtus Entella take 1.00 points per game, Modena 2.00.
Absences and team news
Virtus Entella report no significant absences.
Modena report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 32% for Virtus Entella, 30% for the draw and 38% for Modena. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 31%, 30% and 39%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Virtus Entella 1.15, Modena 1.32, 2.47 in total. Over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.8 (over 9.5 at 50%). Expected yellow cards: 3.4, with referee Valerio Crezzini (over 3.5 at 44%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Modena win (39%, fair odds 2.56); double chance X2 rises to 69%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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