Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese prediction
Serie B · · Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Vicenza Virtus a 28% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Cremonese 42%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Vicenza Virtus 1.10, Cremonese 1.40.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Vicenza Virtus: position 17 with 9 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-3-5), 13 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: L L W D L.
Cremonese: position 13 with 12 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-4), 10 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: W W L L D.
On average Vicenza Virtus take 0.90 points per game, Cremonese 1.20.
Absences and team news
Vicenza Virtus report no significant absences.
Cremonese report no significant absences.
Team news, Vicenza Virtus: Gallo confirmed on the eve that Valoti (ankle sprain), Cuomo and Pellizzari are unavailable: three Vicenza absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 28% for Vicenza Virtus, 31% for the draw and 41% for Cremonese. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 28%, 29% and 42%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Vicenza Virtus 1.10, Cremonese 1.40, 2.50 in total. Over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 51%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.8 (over 9.5 at 50%). Expected yellow cards: 3.7, with referee Matteo Marchetti (over 3.5 at 51%).
Kick-off forecast in Vicenza: 9.8 °C, no rain, wind 2 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Cremonese win (42%, fair odds 2.35); double chance X2 rises to 72%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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