Carrarese vs Sampdoria prediction
Serie B · · Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Carrarese a 42% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Sampdoria 29%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Carrarese 1.38, Sampdoria 1.10.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Carrarese: position 16 with 10 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-1-6), 9 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: L W L W W.
Sampdoria: position 19 with 8 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-2-6), 10 goals scored and 18 conceded. Recent form: W L D L L.
On average Carrarese take 1.00 points per game, Sampdoria 0.80.
Absences and team news
Carrarese report no significant absences.
Sampdoria report no significant absences.
Team news, Carrarese: Carrarese have Dagba and Vujevic back, both already rejoined the squad, while Belloni is ready to return.
Team news, Sampdoria: Injury crisis for Sampdoria: D'Angelo has to do without Insigne and Esposito, and Abildgaard is doubtful with a calf problem.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 40% for Carrarese, 31% for the draw and 29% for Sampdoria. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 42%, 29% and 29%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Carrarese 1.38, Sampdoria 1.10, 2.48 in total. Over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.4 (over 9.5 at 46%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Davide Di Marco (over 3.5 at 52%).
Kick-off forecast in Carrara: 13.2 °C, no rain, wind 2 km/h, pitch dry.
Other factors
Carrarese has a new coach, G. Pagliuca, in charge for 38 days.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Carrarese win (42%, fair odds 2.38); double chance 1X rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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