Gent vs Kortrijk prediction
Jupiler Pro League · · Planet Group Arena, Gent
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Gent a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Kortrijk 13%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Gent 2.10, Kortrijk 0.85.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Gent: position 4 with 25 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-1-1), 19 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: L W W W D.
Kortrijk: position 18 with 4 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-8), 4 goals scored and 22 conceded. Recent form: L D L W L.
On average Gent take 2.50 points per game, Kortrijk 0.40.
Absences and team news
Gent report no significant absences.
Kortrijk report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 63% for Gent, 22% for the draw and 15% for Kortrijk. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 65%, 22% and 13%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Gent 2.10, Kortrijk 0.85, 2.95 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 51%; the most likely score is 2-0.
Expected corners: 9.6 (over 9.5 at 48%). Expected yellow cards: 3.7, with referee J. Boterberg (over 3.5 at 51%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Gent win (65%, fair odds 1.53); double chance 1X rises to 87%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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